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Wednesday, June 23, 2004

 

With All Deliberate Speed - Part 4. Whither Bavasi?

As the debacle that is the 2004 Mariners season has unfolded, speculation in the blogosphere has started about how long it will be until Bavasi is fired. Some bloggers think the noose is tightening already. Jeff Shaw and I share the opinion that Bavasi is not in any realistic danger of losing his job.

I think Bavasi has security for at least two more years. His job will only come into jeopardy when and if it becomes clear to ownership that Bavasi's leadership is not enabling the Mariners to consistently field a competitive team. The results from this season contribute only minimally to that evaluation.

When Bavasi was interviewing for the position, his presentation to ownership his assessment must have addressed the following elements:
  • the current situation of the team

  • different options for the team to follow in the coming years

  • his recommendations for how the team should evolve over the next five years or so, and how he was going to get the team there
In hiring Bavasi, ownership ratified Bavasi’s plans, and thereby established the overall course the Mariners will follow. As I've addressed in previous posts, the team only deviates from a plan after long and careful consideration. One-third of a season is simply not sufficient time for a team to make a change as radical as deciding they hired the wrong person to be GM.

Furthermore, even if the team's 2004 collapse extends the full season, I don't believe that would affect Bavasi's position. I suspect that ownership already figured this year was going to be the last hurrah for the Gillick team, with major retooling scheduled for this off-season. The fact that the current season is a disaster does not invalidate Bavasi’s long-term plans. In fact, if Bavasi does breathe some life into this moribund patient, the resuscitation will more likely be considered evidence of his capability to respond to adverse team performance.

The real test for Bavasi will be in two or three years, when the Gillick influence is diminished and the team is Bavasi's creation. Barring another year of total collapse, I can't see Bavasi being in jeopardy before the end of the 2006 season. If the team is in a pennant race in 2005 or 2006, his day of reckoning recedes further.

That concludes this four part missive on Team Mariner. If you read all four of the posts to get to this point, congratulations and thanks for reading. As always, comments are welcome and appreciated!
Links to all four With All Deliberate Speed posts:

6/23/2004 02:18:00 PM. Posted by Stephen
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